Netherlands 2024. Volvo Rides EV Boom, Pressuring Kia’s Market Lead

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Dutch Auto Market grew 3.2% in 2024, reaching 381,166 units. Though still below pre-COVID levels, the recovery was supported by the EV segment steady expansion, up 27.6% compared to prior year. Kia retained its lead, though Volvo’s rapid rise brought it closer to the top. Tesla remained the best selling EV brand, up 54.9%.

Market Trend and Outlook

Growth forecasts for the Netherlands indicate a modest recovery, with real GDP growth projected at 0.8% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025, and 1.5% in 2026. Private consumption will strengthen due to real wage growth, tax cuts, and a tight labor market, while investment activity, which fell in 2023, is set to recover gradually. Inflation is forecast to decline from 4.2% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024 and further to 1.9% by 2026, though services inflation remains elevated in the short term.

Unemployment is expected to rise slightly from 3.7% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2026 as employment growth slows. Wage growth will decelerate from 6.4% in 2024 to 3.6% by 2026. The government deficit, projected at 0.2% in 2024, will widen to 2.4% by 2026 due to tax cuts, increased spending, and pension reform. Public debt is set to rise from 43.3% of GDP in 2024 to 46.6% in 2026, staying below the euro area average. Despite challenges, gradual recovery is expected, supported by easing financial conditions and policy adjustments.

The Dutch EV segment has been growing consistenly since 2020, with 90,391 electric cars sold up to December 2024—a 27.6% increase from the previous year. While EVs made up 19.4% of total car sales in 2023, their share rose to 23.9% in 2024.

Looking at top-selling EV brand, Tesla retained its position at the top, continuing steady growth since 2021 and rising 54.9% in 2024. However, the standout performer was Volvo, with an impressive 518.3% year-on-year increase and climbing 7 spots into 2nd. BYD also made a notable leap, advancing 5 spots to 8th place,  up 160.7%.

Despite a slow economic start to 2024, the Dutch car market has been growing consistently and closed the year positively, growing 3.2% and reaching 381,166 units. Sales in December confirmed the trend, growing 39.6% and totaling 37,038 units.

Looking at cumulative data up to December 2024, brand-wise Kia rose 1 spot and ranked 1st with 34,980 sales (+4.3%), followed by Volvo -up 8 spots- at 31,013 units sold (+89.6%), Toyota at 30,829 (+20.5%) and Tesla -up 3 spots- at 30,082 new registrations (+54.9%).

Volkswagen dropped 3 spots and ranked 5th with 27,183 sales (-22.7%), followed by Skoda -up 2 spots- at 21,720 (+5.8%) and BMW -down 2 spots- with 21,355 units sold (+4%).

Hyundai -up 1 spot- ranked in 8th position with 19,705 new sales (+4.5%), in front of Renault -down 3 spots- at 18,987 (-8%) and Peugeot -down 2 spots- in 10th with 15,857 units sold (-19.6%).

Looking at specific models, reported in the dedicated article, the Tesla Model Y was still the best-selling car, rising 38.6% from the previous year. The Toyota Yaris followed in second with a 17.1% year-on-year growth.

Medium-Term Market Trend

The Dutch Auto market presented many ups and downs in the past 12 years. It started in 2011 at 578k sales, the highest level of all the following years. A 3 year downtrend took sales to 384k in 2014 with  2015 and 2016 alternating trends, +18.1% and -16.2%, respectively.  From 2017 to 2019 car passenger sales grew overall despite the growth getting smaller each year.

The arrival of the pandemic shook the world markets and the dutch one was no exception, reaching the lowest level of the decade at 355k registrations (-19.9%).

It is clear that the fall of the pandemic has scarred the Dutch auto market. In fact, the market collapse continued through 2021 into 2022, with this past year totaling 311,429 sales, a 3.2% decrease compared to the prior one.

Although Europe is an important center for EV manufacturing, Germany in particular, the production costs haven’t been able to meet with the consumers willingness to pay, with the average cost of new BEVs at euro 55,821. Lack of raw materials and elevated costs for microchip production also pose a threat for the Dutch car passenger market, that is already having to confront higher prices and longer waiting times, pushing lower income consumers into the second hand market.

These factors predicted to have a negative pressure on sales. Despite, the Dutch auto market in 2023 reported a total of 369,244 sales, up 18.6% from the previous year.

 

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models

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