Kenyan Vehicles Sales in 2024 reported mild growth of 4.5%, still impacted by last year’s dip. Toyota surged 22.7%, threatening Isuzu’s leadership, securing 5 of the Top 10 best-selling models.
Market Trend and Outlook
Kenya’s GDP is projected to grow 4.7% in 2024, down from 5.6% in 2023, approaching its pre-pandemic average of 4.6%. Growth is slowing due to tighter macroeconomic policies, declining business confidence, and April’s severe floods, which hurt private consumption. The construction sector is weakening amid high interest rates, while agriculture and services, though resilient, are also losing momentum. Fiscal constraints remain a challenge, with rising domestic borrowing pushing up interest rates and limiting private sector access to credit. Debt vulnerabilities persist despite a projected primary surplus, as interest payments now consume nearly a third of revenues. Fiscal consolidation is crucial but must be equitable, ensuring efficient spending while protecting the poor and improving service delivery. Structural reforms, including tackling corruption and improving governance, are needed to boost long-term growth.
Overall, Kenya’s vehicle market saw modest growth of 4.5% in 2024, reaching 12,979 units but still lagging behind 2022 levels.
Looking at cumulative data up to December 2024 brand-wise, this year’s leader was still Isuzu with 47% market share and a 2.2% increase in sales, followed by Toyota with a 32.5% market share and a 22.7% gain in volume. Ford ranked 3rd best selling brand in Kenya, down 6.1% with a share of 3.1%.
For what concerns models, the Isuzu D-Max was on top of the rankings, up 0.9%, followed by the Toyota Land Cruiser P/U up 40.4%.
Medium-Term Market Trend
Following a quite positive period, which ended with the all-time record hit in 2015 with 19,515 vehicles (including HCVs & Bus) sold, the Kenyan vehicles market was hit by the economic crisis and started falling down, losing in two years over 40% of volume, with 2017 total vehicle sales (including HCVs) reaching just 11,031 (-18.2%).
In 2018 the mood changed and the market recovered. Sustained by private consumption the market scored a recovery above any expectations. Indeed, according to data released by the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, the market grew, gaining 28.0% from 2017, with registrations at 14,124.
In 2019 despite a very good start, with Q1 up in double-digits, the market progressively lost steam ending Q4 with a sharp decline. Full-year sales reached 21,877, up 54.9%.
Because of the COVID-19 pandemic sales significantly decreased in 2020. In fact, sales totaled 14,626, a 33.1% fall compared to 2019.
The market gained back some momentum in 2021, rising 36.9% to 20,028 new yearly sales. While 2022 interrupted this brief uptrend, falling 2.0% to 15,941 sales.
