Swedish Auto Market in 2025 keeps growing, but by less and less each month. YTD sales up to November rose by 2.6%, with Volkswagen posting strong growth at 34%. Tesla reported sharp losses, down 66.3% into 11th while giving up its role as EV leader.
Economic Environment
Sweden’s economy is forecast to strengthen gradually from 2025 onward, with real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 driven by improving domestic demand. By 2026, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.6% as lower inflation, tax reductions, rising real wages and falling interest rates boost household consumption. Momentum is projected to ease slightly in 2027, when GDP growth reaches 2.3%, supported by both domestic demand and a mild export recovery. Inflation is set to decline sharply from 2.5% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026, largely due to a temporary cut in VAT on food, before stabilizing at 1.6% in 2027.
The labour market, despite recent weakness, is anticipated to improve steadily, with unemployment falling from 9% in 2025 to 7.9% in 2027. Investment activity is expected to rebound, helped by higher public investment, defence spending, and a bottoming-out in housing construction. Fiscal policy will remain expansionary, contributing to a widening government deficit of 2.4% of GDP in 2026 before narrowing slightly to 2.0% in 2027. Public debt, after years of decline, is set to rise gradually but remain well below Sweden’s debt anchor. Overall, Sweden’s recovery hinges on strengthened consumer and business confidence amid an uncertain global environment.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
While growth in the Swedish Car Market remains positive, the trend of expansion has been decelerating compared to the boom in earlier months. YTD figures up to November gained 2.6% to 249,053 units.
Brand-wise, Volvo continues to hold onto its leadership (+4%) with a 17.8% share. Volkswagen followed in 2nd with 14% (+34%) while Toyota -up 1 spot- ranked 3rd with 7.9% (+1.7%).
Kia -up 1 spot- ranked 4th (+3.7%) followed by Mercedes in 5th -up 1 spot- (+4.7%) and Skoda -up 2 spots- in 6th (+30%).
In 7th BMW -up 2 spots- gained 22.3%, ahead of Audi -down 1 spot- in 8th (+7%), Peugeot which rose 1 spot and ranked 9th (-4.4%) and Polestar, growing 1 spot into 10th (+32.1%). Notably, Tesla fell 7 spots from 4th into 11th (-66.3%).
Looking at the ranking of the best selling cars, widely reported in the dedicated post, the leader became the Volvo XC60 -up 1 spot- (+32.3%) followed by the Volvo XC40 -up 1 spot- (+25%) and the Volkswagen ID.7 -up 18 spots- (+168.2%).
EV Market Trend and Outlook
Sweden’s EV sector mantains upward trajectory in 2025, with figures up to November increasing by 11.3%. to a 29% share. The electrification trend remains dominant, with increased policy support and investments in charging infrastructures.
Volkswagen led this surge, achieving a remarkable 46.9% rise in EV sales and climbing 1 spot, driven by the strong performance of the ID.7 model. Kia impressed gaining 3 spots and rising 115.4%. Volvo and Polestar followed while Tesla fell 57.1% from 1st into 5th.
Medium-Trend Market Trend
The Swedish automotive market dropped 14.3% over the 2014-2024 decade. Starting with 313,905 units in 2014, passenger car sales peaked in 2017 with a 23.32% rise. In 2018-2019, the market faced challenges, bringing sales to 355,000 at the start of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant dip in new registrations, falling below 300,000 units with a decline of 18%.
In 2021, the Swedish passenger car market showed signs of recovery, reporting a 3% increase with sales reaching 300,000 units. However, 2022 presented challenges as the market struggled to maintain high demand, due to a push towards electrification and other global macroeconomic factors, resulting in a 4.4% decrease to 287,610 sales. The downturn continued into 2023, with the overall market experiencing a double-digit decline. In 2024, sales contracted further, decreasing by 7%.
Despite overall market challenges, the Swedish electric vehicle market reported impressive growth from 2014 to 2024. Sweden was among the early adopters of EVs in Europe, and after a dip in 2019, the sector recovered and continued to expand steadily in 2021 and 2022. After peaking at 81,795 units in 2023, EV sales dropped by 10.2% in 2024, primarily due to the removal of government subsidies for battery electric vehicles, which affected affordability and slowed demand growth.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group, and top 10 Models.
