Italian Car Market in 2025 remains in negative. YTD sales up to September fell 2.9% with all top 3 brands reporting losses. EVs defied the trend and surged 64.5%, with Fiat and BYD overtaking Tesla on top.
Economic Environment
In 2025, Italy’s GDP is forecast to grow by 1.0%, accelerating to 1.2% in 2026, driven by rising consumption and RRP-related investment. Inflation is expected to peak at 1.9% in 2025 before easing to 1.7% as energy prices stabilize and wage pressures persist. Unemployment will continue to decline, reaching 6.2% in 2026, supported by strong labor market participation.
The government deficit is projected to shrink to 3.4% of GDP in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, while public debt rises to 139.3% due to past tax credits and increasing interest costs. Investment growth may slow in 2025 as housing construction declines, but RRP-driven spending and improved financing conditions should boost it in 2026. Disinflation will continue, fueled by falling energy prices, though services inflation may remain elevated. Despite moderate economic growth and fiscal consolidation, rising debt remains a key challenge for Italy’s economy.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
Italy’s passenger car market downturn continues in 2025, with YTD sales up to September falling 2.9% and reaching 1,17 million units.
Brand-wise, the market leader Fiat continues to struggle. Sales dropped 6.3%, suggesting that soon we might see a new market leader. It reported a share of 9.6% on the total.
Toyota followed in 2nd (-1.7%) while Volkswagen ranked 3rd (-5.1%).
In 4th place Dacia gained 1.7%, followed by Peugeot -up 1 spot- in 5th (+2.9%) and Renault -down 1 spot- in 6th (-13.7%). In 7th place BMW climbed 1 spot (+3.5%) ahead of Audi -down 1 spot- in 8th (-2.9%), Jeep in 9th (-5.8%) and in 10th place Ford (-6.1%).
Looking at the best-selling model ranking, reported in the dedicated post, the Fiat Panda was still the market leader, as for the last 40 years, with a 0.3% increase in year-on-year volume. The Dacia Sandero followed in 2nd (-19.5%) and the Jeep Avenger -up 2 spots- closed the top 3 (+22.9%).
EV Market Trend and Outlook
EV dynamics are shifting upwards in 2025, growing 643.8% up to September to a 9% share of the total. The arrival of new entry-level models is making EVs more accessible, though the share on the total remains very limited compared to other large EU countries.
Fiat led EV rankings with an impressive 643.8% growth, up 8 spots, while BYD climbed 15 spots with a 1432.1% increase, posting the best performance. Tesla fell 2 spots into 3rd, losing 31.7%.
Medium-Term Market Trend
Over the past decade, Italy’s car market has seen many fluctuations. From 2014 onward, sales trended upward, peaking at 1.92 million in 2017, up 43.9% from 2014, driven by economic recovery and stronger consumer confidence.
Between 2017 and 2019, growth stalled as the market neared saturation. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 triggered a sharp 28.2% drop to 1.4 million units, a decline that shaped the market in the following years.
Post-pandemic recovery was weak, with a brief rebound in 2021 (+8.9%) fading into a 9.6% decline in 2022, marking the decade’s lowest total at 1.32 million units. While late 2022 showed signs of recovery, 2023 started strong but ultimately saw little change in 2024, as competition from Chinese manufacturers and production challenges constrained growth.
Italy’s EV market surged 172% from 2014 to 2020 and continued expanding, reaching 86,224 units in 2024 with a 5.57% market share. Government incentives and a growing charging network supported this rise, though adoption still lags behind the European average.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 models.
