Belarusian vehicles market fast grew for the second year in a row ending the 2018 at the new all time record with 54.549 sales, up a huge 56.3%. The grey market is probably killed and economic recovery sustained demand. Renault group dominates, with Lada boomed 167%, up in second place.
A detailed release of national accounts data confirmed a loss of momentum in the third quarter, as the domestic economy shifted into a lower gear. Despite a tight labor market, inflation appeared to put a dampener on household spending. In addition, fixed investment decelerated further, logging its worst reading in over a year, partly due to cooling manufacturing output.
The recovery will continue, underpinned by a solid domestic sector and sustained labor market tightness—although a weaker Russian economy is expected to translate into a loss of momentum in the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, improving fiscal metrics and a reduction in government investment at state-owned firms should begin to shift focus towards the private sector.
The automotive industry is heavily depending by the Russian market trend and traditionally almost the half of vehicles are registered after the import through grey market. In recent years, while internal demand was hit by economic crisis, the arrival of discounted grey vehicles from Russia has basically sustained the market volume in the range of annual 50.000 units, changing the mix between official sales (done via the official distribution network) and grey sales.
But trend is changing and the increase of duties to import discouraged their purchase with the effect of booming demand for vehicles “officially” sold through the distribution channels and reported in the official market statistics.
Indeed, according to official data released by the Association of Car Manufacturers (not including grey market) since the start of the 2017 the market is booming. In the 2017 it grew up 29.4% at 34.911 and in the 2018 – even sustained by a recovering economy – sales boomed 56.3% at the new record of 54.549.
The competition is dominated by the Renault-Nissan Group with three brands within the top four, with almost 50% of share.
Renault confirmed the leadership as single brands with 13.558 sales (+29.7%) and 24.9% of market share.
In second place Lada is booming with 9.371 sales (+167.1%) followed by Volkswagen with 7.531 units (+34.7%), Nissan with 3.326 (+68.8%), Skoda with 2.798 (+43.4%), Kia with 2.716 (+56%) and Hyundai with 2.707 (+70.7%).
Model-wise, the new best-selling car is the Lada Vesta with 5.269 sales (+776.7%) followed by the Volkswagen Polo with 4.908 (+25%) and the Renault Sandero with 3.891 (+10.8%).
Research, Consulting, Data & Forecast
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