UAE 2025. Chinese Carmakers Ride Momentum, Jetour And Geely At Forefront

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Emirates Vehicle Market in 2025 continues to expand. YTD figures up to September rose 5.5%, with Jetour surging 171.4% into 4th and Geely breaking into the top 10 in 7th. Tesla’s leadership in EVs is being challenged by new incumbents, including BYD.

Economic Environment

In 2025, the UAE’s real GDP is projected to grow 4.9%, supported by a 5.3% expansion in non-hydrocarbon sectors, led by manufacturing, finance, construction and real estate. Growth is expected to accelerate further to 5.3% in 2026, underpinned by strong hydrocarbon output following updated OPEC+ production plans. Inflation remains low, with a 2025 forecast of 1.5%, revised down due to easing energy and food costs, while 2026 inflation is seen at 1.8%. The banking sector remains sound, with deposits up 13.1% and loans growing 11.1%, supported by high capital adequacy (17.3%) and low NPLs (1.7%).
Liquidity conditions are stable, aided by healthy deposits and the CBUAE’s monetary operations, as policy rates track the Fed’s 4.4% base rate. The insurance industry is thriving, with gross premiums up 14.5% and strong capital buffers. Capital markets also advanced, with Dubai’s index up 35.6% and Abu Dhabi’s up 8.1%, while sovereign risk premia stayed low. Real estate activity surged, with sales up 13.7% and robust off-plan demand, though rentals eased slightly. The tourism sector expanded solidly, welcoming 9.9 million visitors in Dubai in H1 2025, aided by record air traffic through Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports. Globally, the IMF expects 3.0% growth in 2025, with the GCC region outpacing peers at 3.5%, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook

Economic stability and consumer confidence continues to promote growth of the vehicle market. YTD sales up to September 2025 surged 5.5% after an impressive peak during Q1. 

Brand-wise, the leader was still Toyota growing 2.5% compared to the prior year and with a share of 23.2%. Nissan in 2nd fell 4.9%, followed in 3rd by Mitsubishi, up 5.3%. Jetour climbed 8 spots to rank 4th, up 171.4%, followed by MG -down 1 spot- in 5th, up 14.6%. 

Looking at specific models the Toyota Hilux became the best seller, growing 36.7% in year-on-year volume, followed by the Nissan Patrol, up 27.1%.

EV Market Trend and Outlook

EV ownership shows a strong uptake in UAE, with H1 sales growing by 21.3% and reaching a 7.7% share. The surge can be attributed to aggressive initiatives targeting infrastructures and regulated charged tariffs

Tesla dominated with 37.7% market share, ahead of Toyota, while Mercedes and Lexus also posted strong gains further down the rankings. BYD rose 152.7% and 2 spots into 5th. 

Medium-Term Market Trend

The UAE vehicle market flourished between 2010 and 2015, more than doubling volumes from 213,072 units in 2010 to a record 408,154 in 2015. However, this growth was interrupted by declining purchasing power triggered by a sharp drop in oil revenues and the introduction of restrictive fiscal policies. The market contracted sharply in 2016 (-25.1%) and continued a downward trajectory until 2019. That year saw signs of stabilization, with the decline narrowing to just -1%, and full-year sales ending at 238,955 units.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic drove sales down 30.5% to 166,055, the lowest since 2008. A partial rebound followed in 2021 (+28%), though global recession fears and oil price volatility continued to weigh on expectations. The market gradually recovered in 2022 (+2.7%) and 2023 (+29%), ultimately surpassing the 300,000-unit threshold again in 2024 with a 19.2% increase.

In the country, EV adoption had long lagged due to limited infrastructure and high costs, but with growing government incentives, a rapid charging network expansion, and lower-priced Chinese models, demand surged in 2024, up 264.6%. Brands like Jetour contributed significantly to this boom by offering competitively priced models tailored for UAE consumers seeking tech-savvy yet affordable mobility options.

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for top 10 models

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