Japan Auto Market struggles in 2024. After partially recovering in July, August posted negative figures again, reaching 301,879 new registrations (-2.8%). YTD sales amounted to 2,64 million units (-9.1%). Market leader Toyota lost 17.7% while Honda gained 19.5%.
Market Trend and Outlook
Following last year’s economic stagnation, Japanese GDP contracted 2.0% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) terms in Q1 2024, undershooting market expectations. The contraction was largely due to one-off factors, including an earthquake in Tokyo plus a safety-testing scandal at a Toyota subsidiary.
Driven by wage growth, consumer spending, and a weak yen the economy is expected to grow in the second half of 2024: Monetary policy will remain relatively loose, with rates remaining very close to 0%; Wages are poised to grow faster than inflation, which should reverse the decline in real consumer spending; And the yen will likely strengthen later this year if the US central bank fully adopts a dovish approach as anticipated.
While the Japanese economy is expected to grow later in 2024, the first half of the year has been challenging for the car market. After partially recovering, sales in August have been negative, with new registrations rising to 301,879 (-2.8%). YTD sales decreased by 9.1% compared to the previous year, totaling 2,64 million
Looking at cumulative data up to August 2024, brand-wise Toyota maintained 1st place with 852,049 sales (-17.1%), followed by Honda -up 1 spot- at 444,594 (+19.5%), Suzuki -down 1 spot- at 433,810 registrations (+13.4%), Nissan -up 1 spot- at 287,126 (-0.3%), Daihatsu -down 1 spot- with 134,943 sales (-54.3%), Mazda at 96,183 (-23.3%) and Mitsubishi -up 2 spots- with 85,796 new registrations (+13.3%).
Subaru fell 1 spot into 8th with 80,308 sales (+0.7%), in front of Lexus -down 1 spot- with 75,632 sales (-1.7%) and Mercedes, which closed the Top 10 with 26,074 new car registrations (-18.2%).
Looking at specific models, reported in the dedicated article, the Honda N-Box was still the best seller despite a 10.4% decrease in year-on-year sales, followed by the Toyota Corolla -up 2 spots- which grew 4.7%.
Medium-Term Market Trend
The Japanese auto-market in the last decade hasn’t performed amazingly, with its last great surge dating back to 2012 (+28.7%) and the current all time high being set in 2014 when 4.7 million yearly sales were registered. Sales fluctuated above 4 million sales up to 2019.
With the global pandemic in 2020 the entire world economy slowed down drastically, stores and manufactures closing down and most economies taking a beating. The Japanese auto market was no exception falling 11.1% and bringing sales below the 4 million mark. Although the Japanese market did drop compared to other economies it stood its ground relatively well.
In the last few years the Japanese auto market hasn’t completely recovered from the fall in 2020, with yearly sales not surpassing the 4 million. External factors are to blame for this fall in demand for automotives: firstly the lack of raw materials has lead car manufacturers to raise prices and waiting times for cars; another reason is that more and more manufacturers are pushing towards electric that on average costs much more than a diesel or petrol car. This being said despite the terrible performance in 2022, the Japanese market still maintains one of the largest auto markets in the world.
In 2023 total sales were 3.99 million units, a 15.8% increase compared to the previous year.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.
