Norwegian Auto Market in 2025 shows sustained growth. YTD sales up to September surged 16.4%, with Tesla and Volkswagen securing together a 34% share of the market. The two brands also led in EVs which boomed 40.7%.
Economic Environment
In 2025, Norway’s economy is expected to gradually recover, projected to grow at 1.2% in 2025 and 2026. A gradual pickup in growth expected further ahead as monetary policy loosens and real wages improve. Norges Bank forecasts a modest policy rate reduction from 4.5% to 4% by year-end, followed by further cuts in subsequent years. Inflation, though still above the 2% target, has fallen significantly from its peak and is projected to decline gradually toward the target by 2028. However, inflation picked up in early 2025, largely due to higher food prices and broad-based cost increases, complicating the inflation outlook. Wage growth was stronger than expected in 2024 at 5.6%, contributing to inflationary pressures, though it’s projected to ease in 2025.
Despite weak household consumption and a steep fall in housing investment since 2022, overall activity has been supported by strong exports, robust public sector demand, and oil sector investment. Employment remains high, and unemployment is expected to rise only slightly to pre-pandemic levels (around 2.2%). Global trade tensions, particularly rising tariffs, pose downside risks to Norway’s outlook but are expected to have limited near-term impact on domestic activity.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
After showing impressive growth during Q1 2025, the Norwegian car market continues to grow at steady pace. YTD sales up to September surged 16.4% to 126,878 units.
Brand-wise, Tesla retained leadership with a share 17.1% (+23.1%) in front of Volkswagen in 2nd (+29%) and Toyota in 3rd (-22.6%).
Volvo ranked 4th (+1.4%) followed by Ford in 5th (+30.7%), BMW -up 1 spot- in 6th (+42.1%), and Mercedes -down 1 spot- in 7th (+19.9%).
Skoda -up 2 spots- ranked in 8th (+34.1%), in front of Audi -up 3 spots- in 9th (+21.2%), and Hyundai -up 2 spots- in 10th (-13.4%).
Looking at specific models the Tesla Model Y remained on top of the rankings, gaining 43.2% in year-on-year sales volume, followed by the Volkswagen ID.Buzz and the Toyota BZ4X.
EV Market Trend and Outlook
Norway’s steadfast commitment to promoting EVs supported its recovery from 2024 contraction. Looking at cumulative figures up to September 2025, the EV share of total car sales amounted to 40.7%. Norway’s approach included tax exemptions for EVs, high taxes on fossil fuel vehicles, and investments in charging infrastructure.
Tesla claimed top spot, growing 23.1% while Volkswagen, which still grew 62.4% but fell into 2nd. Volvo closed the podium, up 11% in 3rd.
Medium-Term Market Trend
The Norwegian car market started in 2014 at 169,450 units and grew steadily over the next three years, reaching 191,914 in 2017, up 3.5% in annual volume. Sales declined in 2018 and 2019, dropping 5.5% and 2.5% respectively, ending 2019 at 177,623 units. This was largely due to the introduction of the WLTP emissions testing standard, which disrupted supply as manufacturers adjusted.
The pandemic only partially affected sales in Norway, which remained one of Europe’s best-performing markets in 2020, falling just 6.3% to 167,161 units.
In 2021, the market rebounded strongly, hitting a decade-high 205,538 units, but momentum faded in 2022 with a 2.1% decline to 201,240. In 2023, the market dropped sharply by 32.1% to 152,374 units, due to high interest rates, inflation, and reduced EV incentives dampening demand. Sales stabilized somewhat in 2024, with losses limited to 1%.
Norway was an early EV adopter, with strong growth from 18,616 units in 2014. After consistent double-digit gains, the market dipped 41.3% in 2018, then rebounded in 2021 and 2022 with 39.3% and 29.1% growth, respectively. Another drop followed in 2023 (–28.7%), but EVs regained ground in 2024, reaching a 74.1% market share, highlighting the strength of Norway’s long-term electrification strategy.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and Top 10 models.
