South Africa Car Market in 2025 is experiencing momentum. Sales up to April grew 7.9%, with Kia and Mahindra reporting the largest gains. EVs surged 23.4% though the segment still fails to scale up significantly.
Economic Environment
South Africa’s 2025 Budget forecasts real GDP growth of 1.4%, up slightly from 0.6% in 2024, though still below historical norms, with medium-term growth averaging 1.6%. This modest outlook reflects both global economic headwinds, such as trade tensions and policy uncertainty, and domestic constraints, particularly in investment and logistics.
Inflation is expected to ease to 3.7% in 2025, while the current account deficit remains modest at -0.7% of GDP. Public finances are stabilizing, with a primary budget surplus projected in 2025/26 and gross debt peaking at 77.4% of GDP. To support growth, the government plans to invest over R1 trillion in infrastructure over the medium term, prioritizing roads, energy, and water systems.
Structural reforms continue under Operation Vulindlela, targeting state capacity, digital transformation, and municipal governance. The fiscal strategy remains conservative, focusing on reducing debt-service costs, which will absorb 22% of revenue in 2025/26.
Despite reduced tax revenue projections, new tax measures are expected to raise R18 billion in 2025/26. Macroeconomic risks include subdued investment, poor SOE performance, and geopolitical volatility, though opportunities exist in energy reforms and digital infrastructure.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
The South African vehicle market continues on the trend of steady expansion that defined Q1 of 2025, with sales up to April growing 7.9% and reaching 179,863 units.
Looking at cumulative data up to Apri 2025 brand-wise, Toyota was still the leader (-8.8%), followed by Suzuki in 2nd (+22.5%) and Volkswagen in 3rd (-1.2%).
Hyundai -up 1 spot- ranked 4th (+19.7%) ahead of Ford -up 1 spot- in 5th (+5.9%), Kia –up 4 spots- in 6th (+41.5%) and Nissan -down 3 spots- in 7th (-33.2%).
Mahindra grew 3 spots into 8th (+58.6%), followed by Chery in 9th (+17.5%) and Renault -down 3 spots- closing the Top 10 (+6.5%).
Looking at the models, the best seller was still the Toyota Hilux, despite reporting no growth compared to the prior year. The Suzuki Swift surged 36% and climbed 4 spots into 2nd.
EV Market Trend and Outlook
South Africa’s EV Market remains very limited in 2025, with a share of less than 1%. Growing 23.4% up to April, the country’s segment is falling behind trends average continental trends. Still, government is implementing policies to encourage EV adoption and local production, hinting at a future growth.
BMW retained leadership with a 32.4% growth and more than half of the sector in share. Mercedes followed in 2nd (+15.6%) while Audi ranked 3rd (+10.7%).
Medium-Term Market Trend
The South African vehicle market reported an overall loss over the decade from 2014 to 2024, mainly due to prolonged economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and consumer affordability constraints.
Starting at 612,699 units in 2014, it then fell for two years in a row, reaching 522,328 in 2016. After that, it posted very mild recovery to then fall again in 2018 and 2019, when it reached 508,277 units, with an overall loss of 14% from 2016.
The arrival of the pandemic in 2020 caused the South African market to collapse 29.2% to 360,050 registrations by the end of the year. Luckily, the fall wasn’t due to a structural problem in the industry, with 2021 growing 22.4% to 440,425 sales and 2022 at 500,347. An economic crisis, with high inflation and steep interest rates for loans, hit the market in 2023 when sales dipped 4.4%, after which, however, they recovered in 2024, up 5.4%.
The country’s EV segment is still very limited due to high import duties and grid instability. Despite showing an acceleration in the last years, it still faces structural challenges including low charging coverage and coal-based power.
In the tables below we report sales for top 10 Brands.
