USA Vehicles Market in 2025 continues to expand. YTD sales up to September grew 4.6%, following a 7-month positive string. Tesla dropped 14% out of the Top 10, slowing down EV growth though several incumbents are emerging.
Economic Environment
In 2025, U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow down to 1.6%, down from 2.8% in 2024, amid rising tariffs, elevated policy uncertainty, reduced immigration, and a shrinking federal workforce. Inflation is expected to rise to 3.9% by year-end due to higher import prices, before easing in 2026 as demand cools and monetary policy remains tight. Trade tensions and increased tariffs, now averaging over 15%, the highest since WWII, have disrupted supply chains and weakened investment, with retaliatory measures from trading partners compounding the impact. The slowdown in net immigration is also expected to drag on both supply and demand.
Although monetary policy easing began in late 2024, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause further cuts in 2025, resuming only in 2026 if inflation expectations remain anchored. The federal budget deficit is set to widen further, exceeding 8% of GDP by 2026, driven by slower revenue growth and planned tax cuts and spending. Unemployment is forecast to rise modestly to 4.4% in early 2026. Despite headwinds, private demand and labor markets showed resilience in early 2025, although sentiment indicators and financial market volatility signal a cooling economy.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
Despite the uncertain economic landscape, the US vehicle market seems to be holding firm. YTD figures up to September 2025 reported a 4.6% surge while totaling 12,29 million units.
The country’s industry is now at a pivotal juncture, shaped by technological shifts, geopolitical pressures, and changing consumer demand. While China retains global volume leadership, success in the US will depend on strategic diversification. For example, some automakers are reshoring production, such as GM’s multi-billion-dollar shift from Mexico to US plants, to strengthen resilience and competitiveness.
Brand-wise, Toyota secured leadership with 13% of the market (+7.8%), followed by Ford in 2nd with 12.8% (+6.7%) and Chevrolet in 3rd with 11.2% (+9%).
Honda ranked 4th (+4.1%), in front of Hyundai -up 1 spot- in 5th (+11.1%), Nissan -down 1 spot- in 6th (+2.3%), Kia in 7th (+8.1%) and Subaru -up 2 spots- in 8th (+10.6%).
GMC -up 2 spots- ranked 9th (+11.2%) while Jeep -down 1 spot- closed the top 10 (+0.2%).
Looking at the best-selling models, reported in the dedicated article, the Ford F-Series was still the best seller gaining 13% in year-on-year volume, followed by the Chevrolet Silverado in 2nd (+3.4%).
EV Market Trend and Outlook
Monthly EV surge could mask broader downward trend, as YTD figures up to September 2025 fell 5.8% to a 6% share on the total. September sales instead gained 8.7% while Q3 figures also hit a new record.
This peak is to be attributed to consumer rushing before the expiring of federal incentives but affordability remains a significant hurdle for EV adoption to scale up. Still, the emergence of new competitors as Tesla’s losing market share could introduce new and cheaper models on the market.
Tesla kept its leadership position with a market share of 54.6% despite falling 14%. Ford rose 1 spot into 2nd (+20.3%) while Honda emerged as a new threat, growing 157.8% and 5 spots into 3rd.
Medium-Term Market Trend
After the downturn caused by the 2008 crisis, when US vehicle sales plummeted from nearly 18 million to 10.4 in 2009, the market moved on a recovery trajectory. By 2014, sales had rebounded to 16.5 million vehicles and reached a decade high of 17.5 in 2017. Stabilization of fuel prices and improved consumer confidence contributed to this resurgence.
After stabilizing during the following two years, the arrival of the pandemic in 2020 led to widespread shutdowns of manufacturing plants and dealerships. This resulted in a 14% decline in US vehicle sales to 14.7 million that year.
In 2021, the market’s recovery was modest, hindered by macroeconomic factors such as a global shortage of semiconductors. Despite these challenges, government’s incentives to support electrification supported the rebound of the automotive sector, with Tesla, among others, capitalizing significantly on this trend. Still, sales in 2022 remained subdued, marking the lowest level in a decade and reflecting a 20.6% decrease from the 2017 peak.
The year 2023 marked a turning point, with sales rebounding to 15.41 million , up 12.4%. The positive momentum persisted into 2024, with sales rising by 2.7% to 15.83 million units .
Focusing on the EV segment, the market experienced remarkable growth over the decade from 2014 to 2024, expanding by approximately 766.9%. EV sales began at around 109,567 vehicles in 2014 and saw steady increases, reaching 430,592 units by 2021. The acceleration continued with a 71.5% surge in 2022, driven by factors such as heightened environmental awareness, advancements in battery technology, and expanded charging infrastructure . By 2024, EV sales stabilized, influenced by market maturation and the government’s rollback on incentives.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Groups, and top 10 Models.
