Nigerian Cars Market in 2024 stagnated in 2024, growing just 0.4% after four years of expansion. Kia surged to 3rd in a struggling Top 10. Nissan and MG also posted strong gains.
Economic Environment
Nigeria’s GDP is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2024, rising to an average of 3.7% from 2025 to 2027, while inflation is expected to peak at 31.7% before gradually declining to 14.3% by 2027. Recent economic reforms have improved fiscal health, with the deficit narrowing from 6.2% to 4.4% of GDP and foreign
However, inflation remains high due to fuel price hikes and recent floods, adding pressure on households and businesses. To sustain stability and growth, policies should focus on maintaining a tight monetary stance, unifying the exchange rate, increasing non-oil revenues, and expanding social safety nets for vulnerable groups. Continued reforms are expected to drive long-term investment, job creation, and economic resilience.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
Nigeria’s EV market is struggling to gain traction in 2024, growing just 1.3% and remaining below 1% of total vehicle sales.
The EV leader was Volkswagen holding nearly the entirety of the segment.
Overall, the Nigerian vehicle market remained stagnant in 2024, with growth limited at just 0.4%, halting the trend of growth that defined the previous 4 years.
Looking at full-year data for 2024 brand-wise, Toyota mantained leader position up 20.1%, followed in 2nd by Innoson, growing 4.5%. In 2rd, Kia emerged 86.2% with the best performance in the Top 10, rising 2 spots.
Medium-Term Market Trend
Until 2014 the market grew steady, eventually hitting the 57,000 units record for new vehicles. At the end of that year, the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan was created matching the Brazilian’s one in which the government rather than “invite” to produce locally, “forced” car-makers to appoint local facilities wishing to be part of the “party”.
In the first two following years, the government released almost 30 licenses, while the domestic market collapsed, falling to 11,743 units in 2017 due to the deep economic crisis generated by the fall in oil price and the poor domestic demand.
In 2018 the market started to recover, considering the level was near 20% of the 2014 level. Sales grew up at 19,545 and the first group of car manufacturers started to open small local plants to supply the domestic market. In 2019 the light vehicles market was back in difficulties, following the fast recovery shown in the previous year and sales declined 40.3% at 11,663 units, the second-worst level in the last decade.
The Nigerian new light vehicles market seems unable to recover after the series of negative facts which impacted severely the market in the last years. In 2020, the modest growth of the economy was killed by the combined effects of strict social distancing measures and widespread travel restrictions due to covid19 and the fall of oil prices in the international market.
Since 2021 the market is growing, however remaining at negligible level for the country most populated of the African continent.
In 2023, the market grew for the 3rd year in a string. Total sales reached 13,304 (+18.9%) the best out of the last four years.
