Nigerian Vehicle Market in 2025 is still shrinking. H1 figures dropped 18.4% with MG rising 60.6% into 4th, about to overtake Hyundai on the podium while the rest of the Top 10 experience losses.
Economic Environment
In 2025, Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.4%, sustained by increased oil production, the launch of a new domestic refinery, and strong performance in the services sector. Inflation is expected to ease to 23% by year-end, down from a 2024 average of 31.4%, driven by naira stabilization and improved food supply. The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.7% of GDP, reflecting higher expenditures, though revenues are supported by stronger oil receipts and tax reforms. The external position remains stable, with rising international reserves, a strong current account surplus, and continued portfolio inflows. Major reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, improved FX market operations, and the cessation of deficit monetization, have strengthened macroeconomic stability.
However, poverty and food insecurity remain acute, prompting calls for faster delivery of cash transfers and pro-poor spending. The IMF emphasized the need for continued tight monetary policy until inflation is firmly under control and welcomed steps to enhance central bank governance and foreign exchange transparency. Risks remain elevated due to global uncertainty, oil price volatility, and domestic security challenges.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
The Nigerian vehicle market continues to struggle in 2025, with H1 figures falling 18.4% in year-on-year volume. Losses started at 22.7% in January, then briefly eased during Q1 to increase again in Q2, hinting at a more severe downturn during the rest of 2025.
Brand-wise, Toyota mantained leader position with a share of 26.4%(+3.9%), followed in 2nd by Innoson down 3.8%. In 3rd, Hyundai lost 46.1%.
MG was the only brand to report significant growth in the Top 10, climbing 4 spots into 4th and rising by 60.6%.
EV Market Trend and Outlook
Nigeria’s EV market is struggling to gain traction in Q1 of 2025, losing 7.3% and remaining below 1% of total vehicle sales. EV expansion in Nigeria is limited by inadequate charging infrastructure, with projects like Sterling Bank’s Qoray Mobility making progress, but still far from meeting nationwide demand.
The EV leader was Volkswagen holding nearly the entirety of the segment. Kia followed in 2nd while BAIC ranked 3rd.
Medium-Term Market Trend
The Nigerian vehicle market began in 2014 with 52,789 units, coinciding with the launch of the Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan, a policy modeled after Brazil’s, compelling automakers to establish local production in order to operate in the country. Despite issuing nearly 30 licenses over the next two years, the market collapsed by 68.5%, dropping to just 10,446 units in 2017 due to the oil price crash and weakening domestic demand.
A recovery began in 2018, with sales rising 68.7% to 17,625 units, prompting some manufacturers to open small local assembly plants. However, this was short-lived—sales declined by 20.5% in 2019, reaching the second-lowest level in a decade. The pandemic in 2020 dealt another blow, as lockdowns and a renewed oil slump caused a 34.7% drop in sales.
Since 2021, the market has shown steady, albeit modest, growth: up 25.9% in 2021, and rising for three consecutive years, culminating in 13,320 units sold in 2023 (+23.5%), the best performance in four years. The positive trend continued into 2024, with a 15.6% increase, though overall volumes remain low for Africa’s most populous nation.
