Mexico Vehicles Market in 2025 keeps stagnating. YTD sales up to October grew 0.1%, with Nissan on top showing robust growth of 7.4%. Dodge boomed in EV sales, up 317.6% while the sector gained 26.4% despite still accounting for about 1% of the total.
Economic Environment
2025 forecasts for Mexico suggest a marked economic slowdown, with GDP growth now expected to fall below 1%, down from 1.5% earlier this year. The downgrade is driven primarily by mounting trade-related pressures, as U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports, especially in the automotive sector, were implemented sooner and more severely than anticipated. Although Mexico narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q1 with modest 0.2% growth supported by agriculture, manufacturing has started to show clear signs of weakness.
Over the longer term, Mexico could gain from U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, given its growing export similarity with China and increased U.S. market share since 2017. However, this potential is dampened by persistent uncertainty over USMCA renegotiations, domestic governance challenges, and a volatile global macroeconomic backdrop. On the monetary side, the Bank of Mexico reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% in May, reflecting a pivot toward supporting growth as inflation pressures ease. With inflation still above the 3% target but moderating, further rate cuts are expected, bringing the year-end policy rate closer to 8%.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
Mexico’s vehicle market keeps stagnating, reporting a 0.1% gain up to October 2025, with 1,203 million units. The YTD tally turns positive, although mildly, after continuously through the previous months.
Brand-wise, the leader was still Nissan with a 18.2% share (+7.4%), followed by Chevrolet with 12.2% (-6.3%) and Volkswagen with 9.2% (+0.3%).
Toyota ranked in 4th (+2.9%), followed by Kia (+6.7%), Mazda (+8.9%), Ford, (+3.1%) and Hyundai (+0.6%).
MG -down 2 spots- ranked 9th (-10.6%) while Honda closed the Top 10 (-5.3%).
Looking at specific models, reported in the dedicated article, the Nissan Versa was still the market’s best-seller, despite a 0.8% year-on-year loss in sales, followed by the Chevrolet Aveo which climbed one spot and grew 6.4%.
EV Market Trend and Outlook
Mexico is rapidly emerging as an EV manufacturing hub, with localized production driving sector growth of 26.4% up to October 2025. However, charging infrastructure remains underdeveloped, limiting EVs to just a small fraction of the overall vehicle market.
Dodge surged 1 spot into 1st, followed by Volvo in 2nd, which dropped 1 spot (-16.6%), and BMW -up 3 spots- in 3rd (+43.5%).
Chinese brands such as Ora lost ground as they faced competitive pressure from regionally produced, more accesible EV models
Medium-Term Market Trend
The Mexican automotive industry expanded steadily from 2014 to 2016, reaching a peak of 1.61 million sales before declining for three consecutive years to 1.32 million in 2019, a 17.84% drop.
The COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted the market, causing a sharp 28% decline to 952,982 sales in 2020 as manufacturers and distributors shut down. Recovery began in 2021 with a 6% increase, followed by a 7% rise in 2022, despite ongoing global supply chain issues, particularly a shortage of microchips, and the high cost of EVs compared to ICE vehicles.
In 2023, sales rebounded strongly, growing 25.4% to 1.36 million, marking the third consecutive year of expansion and the third-highest sales level in history. Meanwhile, Mexico’s EV market has gained remarkable momentum, accelerating from 2022 to 2024 and surging 206.1% in 2024, fueled by the country’s strategic position as an emerging EV hub and its increasing attractiveness for investment and production.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 models.
