Australia 2024. Vehicle Market Suffers Economic Contration In September (-9.8%)

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The 2024 Ford Mustang Gt Convertible
The 2024 Ford Mustang Gt Convertible

Australian Vehicles Market on a negative string in 2024. Sales in September reached 99,881 (-9.8%), posting the 4th consecutive negative month. Even so, YTD growth stayed positive at 935,260  (+4%).

Market Trend and Outlook

Australia’s real GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.5% in 2024, primarily due to the dampening effects of higher interest rates on household and business spending, before recovering to 2.2% in 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to rise moderately, reaching 4.3% by 2025, which should help ease wage pressures. Although some services inflation is anticipated to remain elevated throughout 2024, suggesting that monetary policy will need to stay restrictive in the short term. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the cash rate at 4.35% until inflation clearly declines, while fiscal policy will provide slight expansionary support in 2024 before tightening modestly in 2025

To support medium-term economic growth, productivity-enhancing reforms, such as improving labour mobility and aligning product standards with other advanced economies, will be crucial. These reforms, alongside measures to manage fiscal pressures from an ageing population and climate transition, could help ensure sustained economic recovery.

September saw another decline in new light vehicle sales (car passenger plus light commercial vehicles), following a few unstable months that interrupted a string of 16 consecutive growing months. Monthly sales in September 2024 reached 99,881 (-9.8%), with YTD figures at 935,260 (+4%).

Looking at cumulative data up to September 2024, brand-wise, the leader was still Toyota with 1185,126 sales (+19.7%), followed by Ford with 74,271 (+20.7%), while Mazda ranked 3rd,  with sales reaching 73,807 (-1.9%).

In fourth place Kia with 61,996 sales (+4.9%),  followed by Mitsubishi -up 1 spot- with 56,919 sales (+24.5%) and Hyundai -down 1 spot- with 54,854 (-4.6%).

In seventh place Isuzu -up 3 spots- with 46,158 registrations (+14.2%) ahead of MG, which dropped 1 spot, with 35,995 sales (-15.9%), Nissan -up 3 spots- with 34,812 sales (+8%) and in 10th place Subaru -down 1 spot- with 31,505 sales (-10%).

Looking at the top selling models, widely reported in the dedicated article, the leader was still the Ford Ranger (+12.3%) followed by the Toyota RAV4 (+93.1%) and the Toyota Hilux (-5.1%).

 

Medium-Term Market Trend

In the past decade the Australian vehicle market has remained relatively stable. In 2010 and 2011 sales remained around 950k registrations. While in 2012 with a 12.6% growth light vehicle sales rose above 1 million and stayed above this mark until the arrival of the pandemic. During these 8 years sales didn’t fluctuate much reaching a maximum of 1.17 million in 2016 an a minimum in 2019 at 1.04 million sales.

With the arrival of Covid-19 in 2020 the Australian vehicle market took a 15.1% hit moving  sales down to 880k registrations.

This drop, enhanced by the closing down of manufacturing plants and distributors ,didn’t last long. In fact, in 2021 sales jumped back above the 1 million mark with a y/y growth of 14.9%. 2022 maintained the momentum and grew another 1.5% in volume.

In 2023 vehicles sales grew up again at 1.18 million sales, a 12.7% growth from the previous year. 

Tables with sales figures

In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Groups, and top 10 Models.

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