Canadian Vehicle Market in 2025 continues on growth path. YTD sales up to October gained 5.6%, with Hyundai reporting the largest gains in the Top 10. Tesla continues to fall, dragging down growth in the EV sector in the meanwhile.
Economic Environment
In 2025, Canada’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.0%, down from 1.5% in 2024, as trade tensions with the United States weigh heavily on exports and business investment. Household consumption is also expected to weaken due to worsening employment prospects and increased uncertainty. Inflation is forecast to rise slightly, driven by higher import tariffs, though lower energy prices following the removal of the federal fuel charge will offer some relief. Core inflation is set to climb temporarily before trending back toward the 2% target. The Bank of Canada has reduced interest rates to 2.75%, with further cuts expected, though inflationary pressures from tariffs will limit the scope for aggressive easing.
Despite a solid start to 2025, GDP growth is expected to slow in the second quarter as exports drop and business confidence deteriorates. Unemployment has risen to 6.9%, and consumer sentiment has weakened. Fiscal policy will remain supportive, although the government budget has shifted from a surplus in 2023 to a 2.1% deficit in 2024 due to higher spending and compensation payments. Risks remain high, especially if US tariffs increase or exemptions under the USMCA are lifted.
Automotive Industry Trend and Outlook
Canada’s vehicle market continues on growth string. After rebounding from a temporary dip in February, sales increased throughout Q2 and Q3. Up to October 2025, figures totaled 1,6 million units, up 5.6%.
Brand-wise, Ford secured leadership with a 12.9% share (+6.2%). Toyota ranked into 2nd with a share of 11.4% (+4.4%). Chevrolet closed the podium with the largest gains (+4.6%).
Hyundai ranked 4th (+13.6%), followed by Honda in 5th (+9,5%), Nissan -up 1 spot- in 6th (+10.1%), GMC -down 1 spot- in 7th (+1.6%) and Kia in 8th (+10.6%). Volkswagen ranked 9th (+16.1%) while Mazda closed the Top 10 (+16.1%).
Looking at specific models, reported in the dedicated article, the Ford F-Series was still the best seller (+4.4%), followed by the Toyota RAV4 (+1.7%).
EV Market Trend and Outlook
Canada’s EV sector struggles in 2025, losing 17% in year-on-year volume. With a 5% share of the total market, several factors could be attributed to weak sales, including tariff uncertainty and backlash against Tesla. Moreover, the recent pause on certain EV progrems in Canada further suffocated the sector’s recovery.
Tesla remained the EV leader, despite losing 25.3%. Ford grew 84.1% and 4 spots into 2nd while Cadillac rose into 3rd, growing 101.1% and 6 spots.
Medium-Term Market Trend
Canada’s light vehicle market saw strong growth at the start of the 2014–2024 decade, with four consecutive years of expansion, surpassing 2 million sales in 2017 with a 10.3% increase. However, this peak was short-lived. The market declined by 3.73% in 2019, beginning a downturn that continued until 2022, resulting in a total 24% loss from 2018 levels.
Recovery began in 2023, with growth in all 12 months, marking an 11% increase. The positive trend continued in 2024, with an 8.8% rise in sales, though still below the 2-million threshold.
As a major vehicle producer, Canada assembles 1.4 million cars annually, supported by nearly 700 parts suppliers and global supply chains. However, the sector remains highly vulnerable to disruptions, including COVID-19-related factory shutdowns, border closures, and semiconductor shortages.
Canada’s EV sector has grown steadily over the past decade, driven by its rich critical mineral reserves and expanding battery manufacturing industry. Growth remains positive in 2024 and is expected to continue, though U.S. dominance in Canada’s EV market could be challenged by Trump’s proposed tariffs.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands and top 10 Groups.
