Kenyan Vehicles Sales in 2025 is stabilizing. H1 figures grew 16.8%, stabilizing after the impressive surge in Q1. Mitsubishi rose 1 spot into 3rd, looking to take market share from Isuzu and Toyota at the top.
Economic Environment
In 2025, Kenya’s real GDP is projected to grow by 4.5%, with a gradual recovery to around 5.0% expected in 2026–27, supported by resilient agriculture, strong remittances, and a rebound in services. However, the broader pace of growth remains subdued due to floods, high interest rates, weak industrial activity, and ongoing policy uncertainty that continues to hamper investment and formal job creation. While macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, exchange rate stability, and foreign reserves have improved since 2024, public debt remains at high risk, with interest payments consuming about a third of tax revenue. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.1% of GDP in early 2025, helped by rising exports, especially in agriculture, and a 19% increase in remittances, although export performance in tea, manufacturing, and services remained soft.
Revenue collection continues to underperform, and the World Bank stresses the need for more efficient fiscal policies and quicker resolution of public arrears. The report underscores that while Kenya’s fiscal system helps reduce inequality, it has limited impact on poverty, highlighting the need for expanded and better-targeted cash transfers. Strengthening public financial management, enhancing expenditure efficiency, and improving governance could unlock investor confidence and support higher growth. Reforms to VAT, when paired with social protection measures, could expand fiscal space and enhance equity. Investments in education and health remain vital for long-term development outcomes.
After a 3-years losing streak, the Kenyan vehicle market is recovering in 2025. H1 figures grew 16.8%, after impressive Q1 surge, which peaked in February, up 154%.
Brand-wise, this year’s leader was still Isuzu with 52.2% market share and a 15.2% increase in sales, followed by Toyota with a 25.5% market share and a 5% loss. Mitsubishi ranked 3rd, securing a share of 413.7% and with impressive growth of 413.7%.
For what concerns models, the Isuzu D-Max was on top of the rankings, up 30.9%, followed by the Toyota Hilux -up 3 spots- growing 118.4%.
Medium-Term Market Trend
The Kenyan vehicle market saw a period of growth leading up to 2015, when annual sales peaked at 13,840 units. This was followed by a sharp downturn, with sales falling by 47% in 2016 and another 8% in 2017, reaching 8,614 units. A recovery emerged in the following years, driven by global macroeconomic improvements and resilient private consumption, pushing sales up to 15,825 units in 2019 (+83.7%).
However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this trajectory, causing sales to drop 19.6% in 2020 to 12,731 units. A rebound followed in 2021, as sales rose by 26.4% to 16,095 units, bolstered by improving consumer confidence and recovering economic activity. Starting in 2022, however, the market entered a sustained recession, falling 5.1% in 2022, 18.7% in 2023, and another 10.6% in 2024 to close at 11,100 units. This downturn was driven by a combination of high inflation, elevated interest rates, and depreciating currency, all of which eroded consumer purchasing power and increased the cost of vehicle imports and financing. As a result, demand for new vehicles declined sharply, particularly for higher-priced models and imported brands.
