Iranian Vehicles Market in June 2024 fell for the 4th consecutive month, reporting 86,772 new registrations. H1 figures at 517,242 are down 10.4% compared to the prior year.
Car Market Trend and Outlook
Iran’s economy has been growing for the 4th consecutive year aided by a recovery in the oil sector and despite the ongoing economic sanctions. GDP grew 4.7% in the year 2023/24. The oil sector, accounting for 8.6 percent of GDP in the period, expanded by 16.3 percent (y/y) fueled by a tighter global oil market and improved oil exports despite sanctions. The non-oil sector also grew by 3.5 percent (y/y), supported by domestic demand and exports to selected neighbors.
However, economic imbalances from price and policy distortions, the economic cost of ongoing sanctions, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty weigh on prospects for sustainable and more broad-based growth. This coupled with labor market structural challenges, weaker global demand, and declining capital stock push expectations for GDP growth to moderate to an annual average of 2.8 percent during 2024/25 to 2026/27.
The automotive industry is the second most important – after the oil – in the country and in the past, over 15 years ago accounting for over 1.5 million sales per year. However, due to the economic difficulties, sanctions and low pro-capita income, it stands now around 1 million per year.
Local manufacturers control the industry while Chinese OEMs have recently replaced Western companies which left the country after the last sanction tour.
Iran’s vehicle market in June 2024 fell for the 4th consecutive month, reporting 86,772 new registrations. H1 figures at 517,242 are down 10.4% compared to the prior year.
Looking at cumulative data up to June 2024, the Market leader was Saipa, with 233,655 sales (-5.2%) and a 45.2% market share, followed by Peugeot with 152,288 new registrations (-16.3%) and Iran Khodro at 101,327 sales (-12.9%).
In 4th ranked Zamyad with 15,032 new registrations (-1.4%), in front of Haima at 6,484 sales (-9.1) and Chery, which reported 4,798 units sold (-23.3%).
Medium-Term Market Trend
Considering the huge local production and Iranian rule in the Middle East, the Iranian automotive industry would be one of the Top 15 in the World. However, the diplomatic war against Western countries with reiterated sanctions, has disrupted the industry in recent years.
Following the 2014 Ginevra agreement, which allowed the stop of sanctions, the car market boomed by over 1.5 million. However, when President Trump decided to ignore that agreement, reaffirming the sanctions status unilaterally, the domestic economy was hit and so was the car market.
The market lost volume by double digits in 2018 and 2019, reaching 793,891 total sales by the end of 2019 (-33.5%).
The pandemic didn’t affect vehicle sales in Iran, on the contrary, the light vehicle sales surged 14.1% in 2020 to 905,643. In 2021 new vehicle registrations remained relatively flat, but in 2022 the market gained another 15.2% finally rising above the 1 million mark.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for Top Brands
